By Francois Stols, Chief Technology Officer at Netstar
During the current COVID-19 lockdown, people are allowed to use their vehicles, but permitted trips are limited to visits to the grocery store, pharmacy or to access essential services. The majority of the population is at home to minimise interaction and to avoid transmitting the virus. Law enforcement is out on the roads, setting up roadblocks to ensure citizens abide by the rules set out by the government.
Let’s assess the effectiveness of the lockdown by looking at what the statistics have to say about our driving behaviour. Our research also showcases crime trends during this period.
Looking at light and commercial vehicles that provide telematics data, we see the following significant statistics and trends on our roads.
Total Distance Travelled
The below graph shows how total distance travelled dropped by 75% on Day 1 of the lockdown from the previous-day peak as people prepared for lockdown. During the first week of lockdown distance travelled fell by 60% compared to the prior week.
Average Trip Length
The average trip length dropped slightly after the lockdown – from just under 12km per day to below 10km, as shown below. This could mean that most people travelling after lockdown are essential workers travelling to work and the short trips to the shops by the rest mean a less significant drop in overall trip length.
Average Speed per Day
This graph shows average speed per day dropping from about 25km/h to around 22km/h. Again, one could assume that the main base of people still driving after lockdown are essential work commuters. The slight reduction in average speed could then be due to improved driving behaviour of daily shoppers on secondary roads – in less of a rush than usual.
Movements by Geography
The below graph clearly shows that the largest proportional reduction in the number of trips was in Gauteng and Western Cape, with trip reductions of more than 50%. The rest of the country seems to have only cut back by about 30%.
For the graph below, a sample of 1 000 vehicles was measured 10 days before lockdown and 10 days after. The number of movements across provincial borders is negligible, but movements between municipalities and towns have halved with mainly essential services workers commuting to their place of work.
Parked Vehicles
Are people staying at home? The two charts below show that the average number of “parked vehicles” (not driving) on any given day has more than doubled indicating that two thirds of vehciles are off the roads.
Also on the same graphs below, we see that the number of long trips (>80km) drops to a third of what it was before lockdown suggesting that people are staying local.
Before Lockdown
After lockdown
Theft and Hijack Statistics
The Minister of Police seems satisfied with the unintended consequences of the lockdown – a drop in the crime rate. Our own statistics support this view. Initially, our theft and hijack numbers dropped to zero, which is a first time we have ever recalled such levels in 25 years of operation, but unfortuntately it seems the criminals are starting to become bolder again.
Although we did not record that many theft and hijack cases during the first week of lockdown, the cases that we did have were predominantly around the Gauteng area. No surprises there. The distribution on the right is not that much different from what we usually find showing that the criminals havent moved from where they operate.
The graph below shows the cities where most cases were recorded. Again, there are no surprises and the geographical distribution of these crimes is similar to what we usually see.
What are our large Commercial Fleets Doing?
Average Number of Trips
We also took a look at some of the large commercial fleets and compared a group of bakery delivery vehicles with some general haulage transporters. As per the graph below, the lockdown did not impact bakery deliveries where as the general hauliers reduced their trips by 70% since lockdown. This indicates that the general hauliers continue to support the country with the transportation of essential services product.
There is a network of drivers out there that are the unsung heros in ensuring that food gets from field to fork so whether they are delivering bread and bakery products or any other essential supplies, from fresh food to sanitisers we should all recognise their contribution.
Netstar telematics data shows vehicle owners complied to lockdown https://t.co/e2HCFjcqIt #ArriveAlive #Traffic #LockdownSouthAfrica @NetstarSA @netstartraffic
— Arrive Alive (@_ArriveAlive) April 15, 2020