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Unpacking the Q1 2016 Vehicle Pricing Index

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 Q1 2016 VPIResults

New Price Index (Figure 1.1 and 1.2)

New prices have not increased as much as Q1 2015 although the depreciation of the rand and other economic factors has caused the price of new cars to increase over CPI. Manufacturers have however reacted and decreased their margins with marketing incentives to keep sales stimulated. We have seen that consumers have looked to move to the used market or delay going into the buying cycle. Toyota and Ford have taken up more than 35% of new car financed sales through all sectors.

Used Price Index (Figure1.1 and1.2)

Used vehicle prices have increased in Q1 2016 versus Q1 2015 and Q4 2015. Higher new vehicle prices in the new vehicle market has stimulated greater demand for used vehicles with the new-to-used ratio sitting at 2.07 for Q1 2016. Ford and Volkswagen captured more than 30% of the used car financed market in Q1 2016.   1 2

2.    Q1 2016 New-to-usedRatio

New-to-Used Ratio (Figure 1.3 and1.4)

The new-to-used ratio is based on finance deals registered in the last quarter. The ratio indicates,as expected,a greater shift of new to used vehicles which means that consumers are purchasing more used vehicles than new. This follows the trend of the VPI where consumers have had massive price increases on new vehicles versus used vehicles.  The last time the ratio had shifted to greater than 2 was in Q4 2009. There is some relief to used vehicle dealers as the data reflects slightly higher margins on used vehicles being achieved for Q1 2016 as compared to Q1 2015. 3 4

3.    Q1 2016 Vehicle Asset FinanceResults

Vehicle Asset Finance {Figure1.5) Overall, more vehicles from all sectors are being financed below R200 000 when compared to Q1 2015 and Q4 2015.Luxury vehicles have been substituted for more affordable vehicles that still provide most of the accessories that a top of the range vehicle would, and consumers are opting to finance more used vehicles than new.

5

 

4.    Q1 2016 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume -Passenger

Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes {Figure1.6) Ford has been doing well in both areas.Toyota seems to have captured more than 20% oft the new car market with Ford just behind them with 16.77%.  Ford,Toyota,Volkswagen and Hyundai appear in the top 5 for both new and used car volumes from all sectors. 6  

  1. Q1 2016 Too Manufacturers by Sales Volume – Light Commercial

Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure1.7) Ford has been doing well in both areas and definitely seems to be the market leader in light commercial vehicles. That said,Toyota has closed-in in the used market, with Ford capturing close to half of the new market. Ford,Toyota and Nissan are the only manufacturers which appear in the top 5 for both new and used car volumes from all sectors. 7

Sources

  • Figure 1.1- Industry SalesData
  • Figure1.2-IndustrySalesData
  • Figure1.3-NewFinancedVehicleSalesData
  • Figure1.4-NewFinancedVehicleSalesData
  • Figure1.5-NewFinancedVehicleSalesData
  • Figure1.6-NewFinancedVehicleSalesData
  • Figure1.7-NewFinancedVehicleSalesData

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